Can Rice Survive Climate Change?
Introduction
The farming revolution was one of the world’s greatest feats of ingenuity. By promoting mass yielding varieties of wheat, and especially rice, growers in Latin America and Asia supported countries emerge from regular famines. In 2023, orzya sativa (rice) constitutes 16% of the world’s diet. The majority of rice grown today is in Asia, where 10 producing countries account for 84% of global rice production. Rice is a staple for over 3.5 billion people.
Over the past few decades, consumption of rice has boomed, rising from 157 million tonnes in 1960 to 520 million tonnes. Over the next 25 years the demand for rice is forecasted to rise by 30%. Demand is going to soar, but the production of rice is susceptible to extreme weather conditions derived from climate change. Additionally, rice is a major contributor to climate change, a bigger source of emissions than any food product except beef. The insidious and complicated feedback loop within rice production and demand needs to be addressed urgently to meet climate targets.
The Climate Impact of Rice
The IPCC have highlighted that for every single degree Celsius increase in temperature, rice yields are forecasted to decline by 5-10%. As a result, in recent years rice production has spluttered. Yields are stagnant, with the greatest slowdowns experienced in South-East Asia. Large producing countries including Indonesia and Philippines have already turned to imports to satisfy local demand. Adverse weather conditions have dramatically increased the frequency of droughts and floodings, destroying rice crops. Pakistan, the 4th largest exporter of rice, saw 15% of its harvest wiped out in 2023. Rising sea-levels have resulted in salt seeping into the Mekong Delta, Vietnam’s rice bowl. Lastly, China is grappling with its highest level of drought in over 20 years.
Rice is clearly grown in countries susceptible to extreme weather conditions. Although a major component of the global diet, rice has become the second major contributor to climate change. Most of the rice is cultivated through ‘flooding techniques’ in paddies. First, water Is poured into paddies until the plants are submerged. When ready to harvest, the water is drained from the plantation. Approximately, 75% of rice is grown using this method, which has severe climate consequences. The plants require substantial amounts of water, whilst the fields emit two greenhouse gases (GHGs), methane and nitrous oxide. The latter is derived from the extensive fertiliser applied to the soil. Rice paddies consume one-seventh of nitrogen fertilisers produced and one-third of irrigation resources globally. Innovative solutions are required to reduce GHGs from rice production.
Solutions
The adoption of new technologies such as flood-resistant and more nutritious seeds are providing a sustainable approach to rice production. Additionally, practice-based interventions such as Alternate Wetting and Drying, Direct Seeded Rice, and Crop Input Solutions are reducing the methane emissions produced from rice. These practices need to be scalable and implementable by farmers to meet soaring demand. Groups such as CleanRise are actively tackling the climate challenge posed by rice, by reducing GhGs from the production cycle, whilst increasing yields. In tandem with new technologies that are more flood-resistant, new practices such as direct seeding of paddies, could shorten the growing cycle and reduce the amount of water required. The implementation of smart farming practices, AI, cloud computing and big data can support a sustainable boost in production.
Next Steps
Sustainable approaches are coming to market; however, farmers have been slow to adopt such improvements. Governments are known to provide generous subsidies that shield farmers to the rice crisis. A better suited approach would be to make state support contingent on best practices. More challenging will be for governments to nudge producers and consumers away from rice. India and Indonesia are promoting alternative grains, such as millet, which is more nutritious and use a lot less water. Rice is more calorific than bread or maize. In Southeast Asia, a heavy focus on rice is linked to higher rates of diabetes. Switching to alternative commodities is not only better for health but support the climate transition. Governments must also begin prioritising the ‘right crop’. India, for example, sources rice at above market rates, which is subsequently distributed as food aid. The government should become more crop-agnostic, which would entice farmers to cultivate the ‘right crop’ rather than a heavily subsidised and skewed crop.
Call to Action
The juxtaposition between satisfying global climate challenges and demand for rice will be no easy task. Nevertheless, the practice of responsible rice production is well underway. The roadmap set out by the FAO at COP 28 has created fresh impetus and attention towards the conundrum set by rice. New farming techniques and technologies can be scaled; however, support is required from all key stakeholders. A call to action to achieve long-term sustainable rice production requires a commitment from farmers, government officials, multilateral institutions and most importantly the consumer. Sorting out the mounting crisis in the world’s most in-demand commodity is a vital step towards reaching a sustainable food system.
